After the War
What Follows An Attack Against Iraq?
Scott R. Lyons
Issue date: 10/1/02 Section: Perspectives
- Page 1 of 2 next >
If it is to be assumed, as some eminent professors at this law school have suggested, that a war with Iraq is inevitable, then a very large question still looms on the horizon: What then? What happens after the United States once again demonstrates its overwhelming military advantage and eliminates Hussein?
Several different scenarios may occur following U.S. military action, and none of them provides simple solutions to post-Hussein Iraq. Members of the Iraqi military might fill the void. This would likely result in an entirely military leadership, which is possible because the military remains the most respected institution in the nation in the eyes of Iraqis. The key to such a government, however, will be finding officers with a clean record who are willing to include Shi'a and Kurdish community representatives to share in the power. This may be impossible. Additionally, the current military special forces have access to and knowledge of weapons of mass destruction, which means that they remain a threat to the U.S. There is a strong argument that with a weak Ba'ath party, the elimination of civil institutions, the increasing power of the tribes and the pull of the Kurdish and Shi'a forces, only the Iraqi army can hold the nation together. I would contend, however, that military rule is just an extension of Hussein's current rule and this will be unacceptable. Therefore, other options must be considered.
The Iraqi opposition has tens of thousands of soldiers on the ground, much more than the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, so this would represent a possibility for regime change as it did in Afghanistan. They are split into warring factions, however, and have been hung out to dry before by the U.S., so they lack of confidence in the United States. The U.S. State Department has been funding the recent formation of the Iraqi National Movement (INM), a group comprised of Sunni exiles, to establish formative connections with other Arab nations. This is a good start, but there is nothing established that could step in and unite a nation.
Several different scenarios may occur following U.S. military action, and none of them provides simple solutions to post-Hussein Iraq. Members of the Iraqi military might fill the void. This would likely result in an entirely military leadership, which is possible because the military remains the most respected institution in the nation in the eyes of Iraqis. The key to such a government, however, will be finding officers with a clean record who are willing to include Shi'a and Kurdish community representatives to share in the power. This may be impossible. Additionally, the current military special forces have access to and knowledge of weapons of mass destruction, which means that they remain a threat to the U.S. There is a strong argument that with a weak Ba'ath party, the elimination of civil institutions, the increasing power of the tribes and the pull of the Kurdish and Shi'a forces, only the Iraqi army can hold the nation together. I would contend, however, that military rule is just an extension of Hussein's current rule and this will be unacceptable. Therefore, other options must be considered.
The Iraqi opposition has tens of thousands of soldiers on the ground, much more than the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, so this would represent a possibility for regime change as it did in Afghanistan. They are split into warring factions, however, and have been hung out to dry before by the U.S., so they lack of confidence in the United States. The U.S. State Department has been funding the recent formation of the Iraqi National Movement (INM), a group comprised of Sunni exiles, to establish formative connections with other Arab nations. This is a good start, but there is nothing established that could step in and unite a nation.
Be the first to comment on this story